Energy Price Cap Up 13%: What It Means for Solar

The price cap has gone up again

Ofgem confirmed a 13% rise in the energy price cap for the period from 1 July to 30 September 2026, driven largely by higher wholesale gas prices. For most households that means another jump in the cost of every kilowatt-hour pulled from the grid, on top of increases earlier in the year.

The next review, covering October to December 2026, will be published by Ofgem by 26 August. Nobody can say with certainty what that figure will be, but the direction of travel over the last few years has been consistently upward. If you’re weighing up solar, that trend is worth factoring into your decision — not because of scare tactics, but because it’s the single biggest variable in the payback calculation.

Why grid prices drive the payback sum

The value of a solar panel system isn’t really about the panels — it’s about the electricity you don’t buy from your supplier. Every unit your system generates and you use on-site is a unit you’re not paying grid rates for. At current typical rates of around 24p/kWh, a well-sized system covering a large share of daytime usage can save a household £600–£1,100 a year. When the grid price rises 13%, that saving rises with it — the panels haven’t changed, but what they’re worth to you has.

This is why payback periods for solar have been shortening even as installation costs have stayed broadly flat. A system that was pencilled in at an 8-year payback two years ago may now be tracking closer to 6, simply because the electricity it’s offsetting costs more than it did.

Battery storage compounds the effect

A price cap rise doesn’t just affect what you pay for imported electricity — it also raises the value of shifting your own generation into the evening rather than exporting it. Battery storage (typically 5–60 kWh, stackable in most of our installs) lets you store cheap daytime solar generation and use it after dark instead of buying back grid electricity at the new, higher rate. Pair that with a smart export tariff and you’re also earning around 12p/kWh through the Smart Export Guarantee on anything you don’t use.

For reference, typical installed costs currently sit around:

• 6 panels + 10 kWh battery — from roughly £6,500
• 12 panels + 10 kWh battery — from roughly £7,770
• 20 panels + 10 kWh battery — from roughly £10,000

Every home differs — roof orientation, shading and household usage patterns all move the number — but these are a sensible starting point for sizing expectations.

What this doesn’t change

It’s worth saying plainly: rising energy prices don’t make solar a good fit for every roof. North-facing roofs, heavy shading, or very low daytime electricity use will always blunt the returns, whatever the price cap does. The fundamentals — good roof orientation, a system sized to your actual usage, and a properly designed inverter and battery setup — matter more than any single quarter’s price cap announcement.

What the price cap rise does is tilt the maths a little further in solar’s favour for homes that were already borderline. If your last quote is a year or two old, the numbers it was built on are probably out of date — and not in the direction that makes solar look worse.

Worth a fresh look

If you looked at solar before and the payback period gave you pause, it’s worth revisiting the numbers now rather than assuming the old quote still applies. We’ll run a free, no-obligation survey based on your actual roof and usage, using current prices, to show you what the payback looks like today.